National Debt
Tuesday, May 4, 2010 at 8:50PM It appears that the economy is finally turning around. While the employment and payroll numbers tell a bleak tale, GDP was up 3.2% for the first quarter of 2010 and the markets have been displaying resilience over the past year. Perhaps more importantly, investment in single-family structures rebounded from a four-year plummet in Q1. Many economists in both the public and private sectors believe we are headed toward more growth and stronger numbers across the board. This scenario is ideal and I hope it will be fulfilled, yet I remain skeptical of the exuberance.
In response to the financial crisis, the federal government added trillions to the national debt in its stimulus spending, tax credits, and expansion programs. The total federal debt is currently around $13 trillion and continues to increase. This figure is difficult to grasp though and means little to average citizen. In an admittedly obtuse manner, I want to make the scale of this figure easier to grasp so that I may elaborate on its importance for our nation’s future. If we divided the federal debt evenly amongst all U.S. citizens, each of us would be responsible for $42,000.
More troubling is the interest that will be due on this debt. Another response to the crisis was the lowering of interest rates to near zero in an attempt to keep markets liquid. The inevitable reaction to this response is the eventual increase of those rates, which is applied to the national debt. The annual interest due on our national debt currently stands at $187 billion. The Congressional Budget Office projects an increase of the interest due to $916 billion by 2020. If this holds true, interest alone would cost more than we currently spend on Social Security. It would comprise 18% of federal spending, nearly equally defense spending.
Projections on such a time scale are notoriously unreliable and we could see a complete reversal of the numbers. These projections are actually based on fairly optimistic assumptions though, we could easily see numbers worse than these as well.
To make the effect of these figures more relevant I turn to Greece, which because of rampant spending and a failure to correct the budget, is now bankrupt. The government has enacted austerity measures cutting public services (i.e. waste removal, fire/rescue, postal, etc.) in an attempt to solicit bailout funds from other nations. A similar scenario for the U.S. is remote, but the current situation in Greece should serve as fair warning of what is possible if we fail to control spending.
Criticism of the governmental response to the financial crisis is difficult to levy due to the immediacy and scale of the issues we faced. Regardless of personal opinions regarding how we responded to the issues, we must now work together to reign in waste and revamp our national fiscal policy. This will not be easy or painless, but it must be done and we must elect representatives who are willing to take the necessary risks to get it done.


